CEA?s director and Steve Bambridge from GFK digital world
started their presentation explaining what it is that they do to track the tech
industry worldwide not just North America the way CEA does.
Things to keep in mind, exchange rates, sales tax, and the subsidies,
so the dollar is used as a common denominator.
They look at developed and emerging markets to take their
The tech market should go back to growth in 2013 which is +4
points, in a modest recovery to about $1105 bn from $1058 BN in 2012. This will come from innovations, but mainly
from emerging markets. Developing
markets will grow by 9% and 1% from mature markets YOY grow on a revenue basis.
Some considerations for growth: Usual suspects such as,
China, India, Brazil, as well as newcomers Indonesia, Philippines, SUSA will
help achieve this number. Things such as
domestic consumptions, infrastructure investments, interest rates and tax cuts,
low tariffs, population growth, and economy growth will impact the market. China is the main growth driver.
Causes for concern, Western Europe due to many nudge
positive, but Eurozone crisis still hovers.
Japan is down with low growth environment. USA is flat 2% growth, but
pending cuts still pending. Other to
watch, Argentina, their inflation is up, trade barriers and balance of
payments. Latin American growth has been down thanks to Brazil with a decline
in tech growth from 10% in 2010 to 1% in 2013.
Developing markets to lead bounce back:
World up 4%, Western Europe down 1%, N. America up 3%,
Developed Asia up 3%, Emerging Asia up 9%, Latin America up 5%, Middle east and
Africa up 12%, C&E Europe/CIS up 7%.
Developing Technology follows that lead:
Tablets and smart phones are dominating the world?s landscape. For the 2012 holiday season tables where requested
16% of the time, TV?s 10%, Smart phones, 8%, Notebooks 7% etc?
Lower priced models will boost adoption to emerging markets;
2% less in North America, Down 3% in developed markets and up 4% in emerging
markets. Phone prices in china are staying under $100.
So where is this taking us? We are shifting from mature
market to emerging markets driving the main growth of the industry.